Assessing coal mine closures and mining community profiles for the Just Transition in South Africa

This paper provides comprehensive spatial and temporal analysis of the coal mining industry and its host communities, particularly looking at expected coal mine closures and current community vulnerabilities. Decommissioning schedules for all coal-fired power stations and operating coal mines are plotted, and 69 mining host communities and 21 municipalities are mapped, classified, and described. Community socio-economic profiles are measured using a set of SDG indicators and census data and municipalities assessed through financial audits.

Key Findings/Recommendations: Findings are that about five coal-fired power plants totalling to 8.9 GW and 15 coal mines totalling to 29.5 Mt/a will probably close by 2030, and a further four plants (14 GW) and 23 mines (106 Mt/a) close by 2040. The mine closure will impact significantly around 2.5 million residents of host communities since levels of income, employment, and education are already very low and many municipalities are in financial distress. For a Just Transition to manifest, the country requires a dual energy generation strategy of coal and renewable energy with a net renewable energy outcome; regional collaboration in the SADC, where the comparative advantages of surrounding countries is applied; and lastly political will and integrity to enable the investment and development.

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