Estimating the cost of a Just Transition in South Africa’s coal sector: protecting workers, stimulating regional development and accelerating a low-carbon transition

SUMMARY: The research looks at the economic costs of transition from coal. The authors use secondary data and conduct surveys on coal companies to calculate costs related to the transition over a period of 20 years.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The paper estimates the cost of coal worker protection over 20 years in two scenarios. In scenario 1, an 82% attrition rate is calculated, with 6 600 coal workers needing retraining and re-employment over 20 years. In the second scenario, about 75% of electricity will be decommissioned by 2043 and 32 920 (1 646 per year) workers will need retraining. The estimated cost of a Just Transition for coal workers over 20 years is R6 billion: salaried compensation costs up to R1.2 billion, retraining at R621 million, relocation costs of R100 million, and regional development and rehabilitation costs of R4 billion.