Can South Africa Withdraw from Its Addiction to Cheap Coal? A Three-Phase Transition Framework for Industry
South Africa’s industry remains heavily reliant on low-cost coal for both electricity and process heat, despite its commitments to decarbonisation. This study presents a practical framework for industrial energy transition, proposing a phased approach toward sustainable manufacturing practices, processes, and energy technologies: 1) Immediate energy-efficiency and fuel-switching actions; 2) medium-term deployment of renewables (PV, battery storage, heat pumps) for low-/medium-temperature heat; and 3) long-term leadership with full renewables, green hydrogen and carbon capture. The study recommends that this phased framework helps guide industrial actors starting with efficiency and fuel switching; then move to renewables integration; ultimately aim for transformational technologies (green hydrogen, carbon capture).
The framework also emphasises that while energy efficiency measures form the foundation, strategic technological investment priorities should target the replacement of fossil fuels with sustainable and renewable energy technologies. The formulation of the three-phased energy technology advancement framework is informed by techno-economic analyses across a range of technical interventions available to plant operators, namely beverage manufacturers. For South African conditions, cost–benefit analyses suggest that the industry will prioritise investments in photovoltaic and battery energy storage systems, driven by attractive returns on investment, which are expected to improve. However, sustainability plans and efforts must extend beyond immediate financial returns, particularly in terms of future space requirements and capital allocation. This more holistic approach will ensure long-term sustainability while meeting increasingly stringent environmental commitments.
Key take-aways:
- This paper shows that policy, finance, regulatory reform and enabling mechanisms (e.g., carbon pricing, green finance) are critical enablers for the transition.
- Industrial process heat (especially at ≤200 °C) is a major decarbonisation gap in South Africa, with coal still dominant.
- Solar PV plus battery storage already offers compelling returns in South Africa’s industrial context (due to high tariffs/load-shedding).
- Solar thermal and high-temperature heat pumps show promise, but currently face economic, technical and space/storage hurdles compared to coal.
- Although focused on only one industry and heat-use band, the framework is applicable to broader sectors (textiles, pulp & paper, food/beverage) in a South African context.